DOW falls to 9,600 as my prediction comes true

Check out my financial obvservations blog below written by me on June 29th of this year on myspace. At the time the DOW was at 11,300 and I predicted it would fall to lows of 9,600. Today that prediction came true and my prediction wasn't low enough as this market is going lower. Yea it was a guess but an educated guess. The way I calculated it was that at 11,300 the DOW had already fallen 1,700 points from its highs of the year at 13,000. I subtracted another 1,700 points off of 11,300 and came to 9,600 where I figured the DOW would end up.

Sunday, June 29, 2008 Financial Observations The economy is slow right now, gasoline now costs $4/gallon thanks to $140/barrel oil, and the financial markets are a mess. What does this mean for Americans for the 4th of July? It means less fireworks, cheaper alcohol, and more people staying at home this holiday. Trying to pick the bottom in this market is impossible and I wouldn't encourage anyone to do it. The regional banks and investment banks and brokerage firms are almost all at 52 weeks lows, and some like C are at 10 year lows. And guess what? They're going lower. The false rallies of the DOW from 12K to 13K back in April and May caused some people to think we may have seen the bottom, but now at 11,300, I believe the DOW will drop below 10,500 and could even go as low as about 9,600. Yes that is my pick and I hope I am wrong. This would be terrible for consumers, small businesses, and even large corporations who are starting to feel the effects of $140 oil. I do own some individual stocks, mutual funds, but in a difficult time as this, I will stay mostly in cash until I see signs of a strengthening economy and financial systems. I don't think the market will crash and we're not going to see bank failures and shortgages like in the 1930's before the Great Depression. But this is about as close as the US can come. The FED has made it a point to step in by opening the discount window to the banks. Without this great tool from the FED many banks could have gone under, like Fifth and Third a couple weeks ago. For the banks the problem is a liquidity issue combined with bad mortgages made at subprime (less than the prime rate set by the Federal Reserve System) levels to bring in more money. Ultimately starting last year the banks got burnt when people started to default on their mortgages in record numbers and now we are in the middle of a credit crunch crisis, housing bubble, and weak financial markets. Still, companies like Goldman Sachs have $1.02 Trillion in cash on their balance sheet thanks largely in part to the FED and in time the investment banks will get stronger. Companies like JPM are actually looking to buy other banks to have a stronger prescene in the Southeast and considering regional banks like Wachovia or SunTrust. I actually don't believe the housing market is as big of a deal as the media makes it out to be. Yea, people are losing their homes and that is a real shame that their American dream is being taken away, but at the same time people are responsible for making the payments they agreed to. My guess is most couples were eager to get a loan to buy their first home and had no idea what they were actually getting into. When cars and computers first came out, they were very expensive compared to average salaries. Only a select few could afford to have a car and I remember when computers cost thousands of dollars. But today everyone has a car and a computer, and yes most families have several of each. I think houses are no different. For so long houses have been so expensive. As soon as you buy one you're in debt for the rest of your life. But with the housing market falling bigtime the past 2 years and with more falling to go, soon I believe just about anyone will be able to afford a home. The sale of foreclosed homes will soon be through the roof, just as people losing their homes now is through the roof. Like I said I don't want to see anyone lose their home but what we are seeing is a correction in the markets which will take time. What's the solution to all of this? For the mean time I would stay in cash as much as possible. There's really nothing wrong with opening an online savings account and getting a decent return now of 3%-4% depending on who you do it through. Having a well diversified portfolio usually is a bunch of crap b/c right now everything gets killed. Shorting the market is probably the best way to play it right now, although that can be risky, but I like the SKF ultrashort financials. I say right now to buy gold because of the weakening dollar and high oil prices, commodities will continue to rise until Ben Bernanke begins the rate hikes which will probably start taking place in the fall of this year when the FED meets. I like AUY, AEM , and the GLD as gold heads back to $1000 an oz. I'm not licensed so take all my picks and do your own research. I like the energy, coal, and natural gas names too, but watch out for the refiners as they are getting driven under by the big oil companies. Stay away from tech and the financials unless its a huge up day for the DOW, otherwise I'd be shorting this market until we see some stability. And that probably won't happen until the election is over. The market hates uncertainty and that's what we're seeing everyday right now.

Favorite Sports Teams

Here are my favorite sports teams:

MLB: New York Yankees
NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers
NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins
NBA: Los Angeles Lakers
NCAA Football: Penn State Nittany Lions, USC Trojans
NCAA Basketball: Kentucky Wildcats, North Carolina Tar Heels

Cell Phones

I'm thinking about cancelling my cell phone and here's why. I pay $40 a month for a service that will eventually give me brain cancer if I use it daily. I actually don't talk much on my phone and you know that if you've called me before you're not getting me the first time because I'm not getting service when you call. There's really only 2 places that I don't get service from T-Mobile ...my home and work...the only 2 places where I really need service. Now I've thought about kryogenically freezing my phone until T-Mobile figures out a way to get service at my home and at work, but the fact is its not even worth it. I still would have to stand on the same tile in my kitchen or the same patch on my driveway for me to get service. To be fair to T-Mobile, Verizon doesn't get service at my house either. Only if you have the XXXqzMach30GIGI-phone will you get Verizon service at my house. My phone is an answering machine. I don't have a text messaging plan either so that my bill stays at $40 per month and not $50. People are shocked to find out I don't text like its AIM. My life really isn't exciting enough that I need to be in touch with the world every minute. Cancelling my cell phone bill would save me over $500 a year, another genius idea from me on how to save money and stay ahead of the economy and everyone else.

USC

USC is the greatest college ever. It has the best football team, the greatest marching band, and the hottest song girls and cheerleaders. What other college is located so close to the beach and ocean? Or has a quarterback with the last name Booty? In his junior year at a high school in Louisiana a scout for USC came in to one of Booty's classes and told him he would be the starting QB at USC. Haha I love it. He was appointed the position. You don't even try out for it. Its just given to you if you got what it takes. By the way I want the USC marching band to play at my wedding. They can march by playing Tribute to Troy, Conquest, Fight On, and Tusk.

Work

Peter Gibbons: So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that's on the worst day of my life.
Dr. Swanson: What about today? Is today the worst day of your life?
Peter Gibbons: Yeah.
Dr. Swanson: Wow, that's messed up.

I laugh everytime I hear this quote because it is so true. I hate my job and everyday I work is the worst day of my life. Can anyone else relate to this? Feel free to leave comments.

A New Mutual Fund

After the Friday's closing bell of the stockmarket, I officially started my own mutual fund that I will watch and monitor for the next several weeks and months. I picked 20 stocks that I consider best of breed companies as I attempted to maintain a diversified portfolio. Here are my picks along with their prices I bought them at in my fantasy portfolio and reasoning behind them.

(AAPL) $172.83 Apple's CEO Steve Jobs is one of the most innovative CEO's ever and the 3 G I Phone will be a big hit.
(AEM) $76.41 A great mining company that has considerable growth and an impressive balance sheet with 0 debt!
(AUY) $14.89 Yamana Gold moves right with the price of gold and is a hot growth stock because of its exposure in South America. Plus gold is going back to $1000/oz.
(CHK) $63.74 Chesapeake Energy is a great way to play energy with the amount of exposure it has.
(FCX) $107.50 Freeport Macmoran is the best way to play mining. It has gold, copper, and silver exposure.
(FSLR) $278.50 First Solar is the best solar stock out there and is still a buy even after being up something like 700% in the last year.
(GOOG) $533.79 Google, along with Wal Mart are the best companies in the world and Google will destroy earnings on July 17th.
(GS) $162.48 Goldman Sachs is the #1 investment bank in the history of the world. This company has over 1.02 trllion dollars in cash and is in great shape.
(ISRG) $271.59 I love the da vanci (not da vanci code0 robotic surgery that this company does. Great growth stock with amazing balance sheet and 0 debt!
(JPM) $33.20 JP Morgan is the cream of the crop in banking. Jamie Dimon in one of the greatest CEO's out there. Look for him to buy Wachovia Bank.
(JRCC) $47.60 James River Coal Company has exploeded this year from $3 and is still growing faster.
(MA) $256.52 Mastercard is my favorite stock ever. Its a great play on financials and retail and Mastercard does not take consumer debt on their balance sheet.
(POT) $221.40 Potash just plain kicks ash. I still like this stock even with the incredible run it has had.
(RIG) $45.05 Transocean is the #1 drilling company in the world and even with oil starting to crack, RIG will still being best of breed.
(RTN) $57.04 The more it looks like McCain will become President the more I like Raytheon, plus it is recession proof and a great way to play aerospace and defense.
(SGP) $21.28 Schering Plough has been beaten down all year and has been on the march ever since it hit lows of $13.
(WMT) $56.29 I worked at Wal Mart for 5 years and I can tell this is the number one company in the world along with Google.
(XOM) $85.74 Exxon Mobil is the largest market cap in the US at almost $500 billion and plenty of cash to go along.
(X) $163.99 US Steel has been sweet this year. I missed this stock at $80 but won't miss it again as it goes to $200.

Each stock will represent 5% or $500 of a $10,000 portfolio and I will monitor its performance. Just so you know the fund's symbol is Semaj.

Dow Soars 277

Before I give my picks and talk about what is happening in the financial markets today, let me first say that I am NOT licensed to sell stocks, mutual funds, insurance, etc. All of my picks are my opinions and need to be researched on your own. Today there was a big rally in the stock market and for once there was not the usual sell of that we see, particularly in the financials. Wells Fargo topped analysts estimates on earnings and revenue despite being lower than last year. A bank, imagine that a bank came out and beat estimates while raising their dividend in a time when there are capital struggles and liquidity issues going on. Wells Fargo is one of the banks I consider to be a good bank that can help with the housing crisis by buying bad loans and mortgages from the weaker, regional banks such as Washington Mutual, National City, Wachovia, and Fifth and Third Bank, all of which could fail if conditions were to worsen. I don't think these banks will fail because the government no matter how much they deny it will not let them fail. The recent failure of Indymac Bank is currently being investigated by the FBI as potential fraud and time will tell. They never actually went bankrupt. Instead the FDIC shut down Indymac Bank before they could. I would need to see more gains in the financial sector and for the market to close higher more days like this before I want to race in to buying any stocks right now. I like Jim Cramer's idea about starting a government mortgage agency that would buy the bad loans from the struggling banks while good banks like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and even investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers buy the good loans from them. Great idea Jim, now how long will it take the government to act on your idea? It was the greatest day in history for the banks from what I heard and please do not panic about your bank. I think they are fine but panic never solved anything